Airbus slightly raised its long-term projection for commercial aircraft demand in its Global Market Forecast released Monday, predicting that “almost 26,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at $3.2 trillion will be needed between 2010 and 2029.”
The report noted this reflects a slightly higher growth rate of 4.8% compared to 4.7% in 2009, and predicts the need for an additional 900 new passenger—mainly single-aisle—aircraft deliveries over the 2009 GMF. Airbus said this demand is primarily driven by “replacement of aircraft for newer, more eco-efficient models in mature markets, dynamic growth in new emerging markets, low-cost carriers particularly in Asia, further market liberalization and capacity growth on existing routes.”
The GMF said that of the 26,000 aircraft, 25,000 will be passenger aircraft valued at more than $2.9 trillion; 10,000 will replace older, less eco-efficient aircraft; and 15,000 will be for growth. “Taking into account today’s passenger fleet of over 14,000 aircraft, the world passenger fleet will rise to some 29,000 aircraft by 2029,” the report stated.
Because freight traffic is recovering at an even faster rate (5.9%) than passenger traffic growth, GMF said this translates into a demand for around 2,980 freighters.
"The recovery is stronger than predicted and reinforces both the resilience of the sector to downturns and that people want and need to fly,” said COO-Customers John Leahy.
Demand for Very Large Aircraft passenger and freighter aircraft, such as the A380, is "more than 1,700 [units] valued at over $570 billion (this represents 18% by value and 7% by units).
Airbus forecast that some 6,240 new twin aisle aircraft seating from 250 to 400 passengers will be delivered in the next 20 years, valued at some $1.34 trillion. In the single-aisle segment, almost 17,900 aircraft worth some $1.27 trillion will be delivered. Airbus said, "this is an increase over previous forecasts due to the accelerating demand for single aisle aircraft particularly in Asia Pacific, the emergence of low-cost carriers and increased route liberalization."