In the last two years, advanced air mobility industry participants and observers have asked when we can expect the first FAA type certification of an electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing vehicle. While certification is definitely a monumental milestone, we should focus on the entry-into-service (EIS) date, when OEMs will have delivered customer aircraft and booked revenue or when OEMs/operators will start to earn revenue from ticketed passengers.

To achieve EIS, an OEM must pass four major milestones: first flight of its first conforming aircraft, type inspection authorization (TIA), type certificate (TC) and authorization to start revenue commercial operations.

Since we have no historical data for electric vertical-takeoff--and-landing vehicles (eVTOL), we researched possible EIS time frames, looking at two scenarios: a best case that forecasts no issues and a more feasible baseline that takes into account the complexity of aerospace projects.

For the first milestone, first conforming aircraft flight, the aircraft will have the conforming systems/parts needed for the specific tests it will perform—avionics for avionics tests, electrical system for battery tests. Only the last few conforming aircraft are expected to have every conforming system and part. We assume the first conforming aircraft will open the flight envelope in a month because the configuration will be very well understood from previous demonstrators’ flight tests.

The next step for the OEM is to receive the TIA from the FAA, which means the FAA has approved all the testing plans and any subsystem tests needed. Following the Boeing 737 MAX’s travails, we do not expect the FAA to assign TIA unless all action items on previous certification phases are closed—see development and certification testing of the Boeing 777X as an example.

Once TIA flight testing starts, the OEM’s fleet of conforming aircraft will go through the entire test plan. As a reference, helicopters and business jets of comparable complexity go through 1,000-2,500 hr. of flight tests to satisfy all the certification requirements. To establish a duration of the TIA flight-test phase and any additional certification requirement for eVTOLs, we use the example of single-turbine helicopter certification.

In the best-case scenario, we consider the Bell 505, a new helicopter with minimal tech insertion and extensive reuse of the Bell 206L4 propulsion system. If we normalize the duration between conforming aircraft first flight and TC, taking into account an eVTOL OEM’s higher number of conforming aircraft, we arrive at a best-case duration of 10 months.

For our baseline scenario, we consider the Robinson R66, a new helicopter that reused the R44’s overall configuration but introduced a gas turbine. Accounting for the number of conforming eVTOL aircraft, we arrive at a baseline duration of 21 months.

Once the TC is awarded, FAA operational requirements must be met. To determine the time needed for that, we look at the duration of the two EIS testing phases: operational suitability and operational certification. During these phases, the OEM proves the aircraft and its operations meet all the requirements for the air operator, aircraft equipment, operational authorization, airman certification, compliance, safety policies, safety management system and continuous airworthiness maintenance, among other things.

For the EIS testing best case, we use a novel aircraft for which no issues were found in extensive pathfinder operational tests for development/certification. For the baseline case, we use a novel aircraft for which some issues were found during limited operational prep work for development/certification testing. In the best-case scenario, we project about nine months of EIS testing; in the baseline scenario, it could stretch to 15 months.

What does all this mean for an eVTOL OEM? In the best-case scenario, 19 months will elapse from the conforming aircraft first flight to revenue flights—a January 2026 EIS, if we assume first flight this June. In the baseline scenario, it would be 36 months, resulting in an EIS of June 2027 with the same first flight in June.

We expect eVTOL OEMs to court jurisdictions that will allow them a quicker path to the 2025 revenue promised to investors. Dubai might be the tip of the iceberg.

Sergio Cecutta is a partner and co-founder of SMG Consulting, where he leads the advanced air mobility practice and oversees strategy, product management, market analysis and business development.