Farnborough 2010 Preview

The 2010 Farnborough InternationalAirshow (July 19-25) occurs amidst an atmosphere of rising confidence regarding the near-term outlook for the air transport industry. Last month, IATA issued a major revision to its outlook for 2010, projecting that the world’s airlines will earn $2.5 billion this year, the first global profit since 2007 and a significant reversal from the organization’s gloomy forecast in March of a $2.8 billion loss (see the World Airline Report, p. 24).

Recovery clearly is in the air in two of the three major regions, North America and Asia, although Europe’s carriers remain mired in red ink and volcanic ash. Lending an air of anticipation to the UK’s biennial event is the strong probability that the 787 will make its public debut here, subject to availability. Large transport manufacturers are also upbeat, with Airbus and Boeing both announcing production rate boosts for their narrowbody offerings.

Thus, barring any last-minute surge in the price of oil, the mood at the industry’s second-largest aerospace exhibition will be more buoyant than two years ago, when oil was cresting at $135 a barrel and the world was teetering on the precipice of the global financial collapse. Contributing to the upbeat attitude is Airbus’s strong performance at ILA 2010 in Berlin, where it received orders and commitments for 67 aircraft worth $15.3 billion led by Emirates’ mega firm order for 32 A380s and TAM’s MOU for 20 A320 family aircraft and five A350-900s. Airbus previously has said it expects to book 250-300 orders this year and through mid-June it appeared to be closing in on the halfway mark. Boeing, meanwhile, recorded orders for 139 aircraft through May 31, more than double the 65 booked in the year-earlier period.

A big question is whether either company will have much new to say about their re-engining studies for the A320 and 737. At the Singapore Airshow in February, COO-Customers John Leahy said Airbus would prefer to have a decision by Farnborough. However, in mid-May he downplayed the likelihood of an announcement here. Boeing has said all along that it would not be bound by the timing of the air show and appears to be seriously considering whether an all-new aircraft is the better solution. Bombardier could perhaps speed the pace of the decision-making process in Toulouse and Seattle by announcing additional orders for the CSeries.

Embraer, meanwhile, recently created a New Programs management post, suggesting that the company is intensifying its examination of options for the future. And ATR is looking closely at the potential for a 80-100 seat turboprop.

Appearing at Farnborough for the first time is the Sukhoi SSJ-100, which debuted at the Paris Air Show in 2009. Airbus will be bringing and flying an A380, while Bombardier likely will have a customer’s Q400 on display along with a number of business jets. ATR will show an ATR 72-500 that is also scheduled to fly. Qatar Airways will display one of its 777s.

According to Farnborough International, exhibition space is 100% sold out, with exhibitors attending from 38 countries as of early May. The 2008 event attracted 132,636 trade visitors and 153,000 public visitors.

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