Previous Polls

How will airlines' earnings be affected if the per-barrel price of crude oil remains above $100 for most or all of 2008?

Recent non-fuel cost cuts, hedging and conservation strategies will allow carriers to stay in the black or at least keep losses modest.
7%
Fuel prices overwhelm non-fuel cuts and will lead to considerable full-year losses, but airlines will be able to maintain current service levels.
14%
Losses will be severe and many carriers will be forced to make substantial cuts in fleet, network and employees.
42%
The industry faces a genuine crisis and several airlines declare bankruptcy or cease operations altogether.
37%
466 Responses

Virgin Atlantic Airways recently conducted a 747 test flight in which one of four engines was powered partially by biofuel composed of babassu oil and coconut oil. Is it realistic to assume that such biofuels will replace oil-based jet fuel to power commercial aircraft?

Yes, advances are occurring rapidly and relatively widespread biofuel flights are fewer than five years away.
11%
Yes, but it's likely to be 10-15 years or more before aircraft operate regularly on biofuel.
32%
No, such tests generate good public relations but fuel derived from the nuts of the babassu tree or other bio sources such as algae is more science fiction than reality.
19%
No, BUT biofuels will partially power flights and ease the industry's reliance on oil, but traditional jet fuel will remain the primary energy souce for commercial air transport.
38%
518 Responses

Although previous rounds of mergers among US airlines have not led to promised benefits, Wall Street and some airline leaders again are calling for consolidation among the remaining big six network carriers. Is it necessary?

Yes. Low fare competition, rising oil prices and a slowing domestic economy will force airlines to merge to achieve necessary levels of profitability.
43%
Yes, but Washington will not let it happen.
9%
No. Past mergers have never lived up to their promise and there is little to suggest that today will be any different. Airline managers need to recommit to reducing domestic capacity and bringing fares in line with rising fuel costs if they want to stay
48%
348 Responses

The price of a barrel oil reached $100 a barrel in early January, an inflation-adjusted high. Will it stay there for the rest of the year or fall back?

Average price in 2008 will be at or above $100/barrel.
30%
$90-100
32%
$80-90
24%
Below $80
8%
Below $70
5%
727 Responses

What do you think are going to be the main business and operational drivers that will bring about maximum benefit to an airline over the next 5 years?

End to end customer management capability aligned to in-flight and ground operational activity
41%
Integrated front and back office synergies
16%
Outsourcing non core airline activities
43%
134 Responses

Given the emergence of the low cost carrier model over recent years, what are your main IT and business challenges using the headlines listed below, that (still) need to be addressed by your organization in order to remain competitive?

Applications modernization
30%
Improvements to infrastructure
48%
Business process outsourcing
23%
44 Responses

What will be the next major carrier to join an alliance?

China Eastern Airlines, the only one of China's 'Big Three' yet to commit.
15%
S7 Airlines. The growing Russian carrier said it is discussing oneworld membership with British Airways.
7%
TAM, the largest unaffiliated airline in South America. No Brazilian carrier belongs to an alliance following Star's expulsion of Varig.
20%
Air India. The new combined carrier will be a significant catch for any of the three alliances.
52%
Someone else.
5%
281 Responses

Emirates has 55 A380s on order. Qatar Airways has signed up for 80 A350 XWBs and Etihad Airways has ordered enough aircraft to nearly double its 25-strong fleet. Kuwait's Jazeera Airways has 40 A320s on order, and it serves a country with a population of about 3 million. Can the Middle East support this kind of growth?

Yes. The region's economy is booming and the number of people with the reason and means to travel continues to rise.
6%
Yes. The region's positioning as a potential global hub between Asia and Europe/North America will support capacity increases.
26%
No. Relatively small populations and geopolitical concerns will limit commercial aviation's potential in the region. Governments will not continue to throw money at airlines.
47%
Not sure. Let's wait and see.
21%
617 Responses

Airbus parent EADS recently revamped its management structure, moving away from a co-CEO setup in which French and German executives shared equal status to a more conventional structure in which one CEO has full control. The new setup will:

Ease cross-border political tensions and allow EADS and Airbus to base decisions on business interests rather than politics.
31%
Increase tensions because the nation not occupying the CEO seat will feel marginalized.
16%
Neither. Changing the management structure will not alter the status quo because cross-border conflicts are too ingrained in the company.
53%
137 Responses

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, pointing to an "aviation crisis" in the country brought on by two major crashes and ongoing ATC congestion, recently confessed that he's "afraid" when flying. How will the crisis affect the prospects of Gol and TAM, which not long ago had appeared to be among the world's most promising airlines?

Minimal impact. The market's underlying factors are too strong and Silva's government will quickly solve the ATC problems.
12%
Major impact. The ATC problems will take years to resolve and the crashes have scared off Brazilians from flying and tourists/business passengers from traveling to Brazil.
28%
Some impact. Growth will slow in the near-term but pick up again within a year.
60%
180 Responses
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