787. Courtesy, Boeing

New York-based Bernstein Research said Boeing will not reach its target for a 787 production rate of 10 a month until 2015. In a client report issued Monday, Bernstein said it had lowered its 787 outlook “due to our concerns of additional program delays.”

Bernstein said in the report, “As a result, we have taken 787 deliveries down to six aircraft this year (from eight), and 51 in 2012 (from 61) and shifted these to the 2013-2014 time horizons.”

The research group said Boeing will deliver 86 787s in 2013, 100 in 2014 and 120 in 2015.

“Boeing began 2011 at two aircraft per month, with the plan to be at 10/month by the end of 2013. We saw that as a challenging ramp, but it appears even more challenging now,” Bernstein said.

Bernstein analysts have been at the forefront of forecasting the production problems of the 787 and predicted that Boeing would take nine months longer to reach its 10-a-month goal in August (ATW Daily News, Aug. 18).

“Production was supposed to be at 2.5/month in the summer, but that was not achieved. Instead, the line was shut down for one month due to supplier shortages and the increase to 2.5/month is now expected in Q4,” it said.

Boeing delivered its first 787 in late September to All Nippon Airways (ANA), more than three years behind schedule (ATW Daily News, Sept. 27).

In August, Qantas Group CFO Gareth Evans told ATW the airline does not expect to get its first 787-8, to be operated by subsidiary Jetstar, until the first quarter of 2013 rather than late 2012 as planned.

In July, Air New Zealand (NZ) CFO Rob McDonald told an Aviation Outlook conference in Sydney that delivery of the 787-9, for which NZ is the launch customer, had been pushed into 2014 from late 2013 (ATW Daily News July 27).

At the time Boeing denied the delay and re-affirmed its guidance of a late 2013 delivery for the 787-9.

Boeing's comment on the new Bernstein report is being sought. However, at the recent handover of ANA’s first 787 in Everett, Wash., Boeing chairman and CEO Jim McNerney insisted that “we have a robust plan. We’ve got a surge line here in Everett. We’ve got a factory in South Carolina to bolster the core of it, which is here in Everett. We have healed up our partners’ production processes. We have a plan to be at 10 787s a month by the end of 2013 and we have confidence we can make it.”