The Asia-Pacific region, for decades the unchallenged bastion of the widebody airliner, will become increasingly dominated by single-aisle aircraft, predicted Boeing.
In a forecast presented to reporters at the Singapore Airshow, Boeing said narrowbody aircraft will account for almost 70% of new jet sales in the Asia-Pacific region through 2032. In its latest commercial market outlook, Boeing said the Asia-Pacific commercial fleet will almost triple in size compared to where the fleet stood in 2012, reaching 14,750 aircraft in 2032, of which 12,820 will be new aircraft. Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP-marketing Randy Tinseth said around 8,810 of these aircraft are expected to be narrowbodies while widebody aircraft, ranging in scale from the A350 and the 787 to the A380 and the 747-8, will account for as many as 3,590 sales.
Of the 12,820 new aircraft predicted for the Asia-Pacific region over the forecast period, 75% of which will be for growth with 25% for replacement, Boeing predicted, adding that around 1,930 of today’s fleet is expected to be retained. “Some 45% [of the new aircraft] will deliver into China,” Tinseth said, adding that “one of the biggest changes in the region is the growth of low-cost carriers [LCCs]. Ten years ago, there were none and today they provide 10% of the available seat kilometers. By 2032, they will double their share.”
Asia-Pacific airlines will account for 36% of the world’s new aircraft deliveries through 2032, Boeing said. Over the forecast period, global commercial aircraft sales are forecast to total 35,280 valued at $4.8 trillion. The manufacturer noted that 24,670 will be single-aisles, 2,020 regional aircraft and 4,530 small widebodies. The balance will be made up of 3,300 medium widebody jets such as 777s as well as 760 large widebodies. Although A380 and 747-8 sales will only represent 2% of the projected market, the 400-plus seat sector will still be worth up to $280 billion, or some 6% of the overall market, Boeing said.
Together with new sales and the retained airliners, the world commercial aircraft fleet will double to 41,240 by 2032 compared to 2012. “Some 60% of the demand will be growth here in Southeast Asia [as well as] Southwest Asia, China, Latin America and the Middle East,” Tinseth said, adding that about 2%-3% of the global fleet will be replaced every year. “In 2012, that was about 600 aircraft, so that gives you an idea of the size of the requirement,” he noted.