ATW Daily News

Airbus targets $3.1 trillion aircraft market over next 20 years

Monday September 21, 2009

Airbus last week said it expects operators to take delivery of approximately 25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at $3.1 trillion over the next two decades, compared to Boeing's recent target of 29,000.

The US-based manufacturer released its latest 20-year forecast three months ago (ATWOnline, June 12). Last week, Airbus said, "Compared to timescales for aircraft investment and fleet turnover, economic down cycles are relatively short and a strong underlying demand for air travel will drive growth." Traffic measured in RPKs is expected to fall 2% this year but jump 4.6% in 2010, increasing 4.7% per year for the ensuing 15 to twice today's level. That increase alone will require nearly 24,100 new aircraft. With the replacement of around 10,000 older planes, the world's 100-plus-seat fleet will double to approximately 28,000, Airbus said.

Freight tonne-km. are expected to grow 5.2% per year, creating a demand for around 3,440 freighters, including more than 850 new aircraft valued at $210 billion with the remainder converted passenger planes.

Asia/Pacific airlines will account for 31% of the new aircraft, followed by Europe 25% and North America 23%. Among domestic markets, Airbus expects India to grow 10% over the next 20 years, followed by China at 7.9%.

Airlines will require 1,700 new aircraft seating more than 400 passengers through 2028, valued at $571 billion, equaling 7% of the global fleet. Asia/Pacific carriers will operate more than half of those planes. Around 6,250 new twin-aisle aircraft worth $1.3 trillion will be delivered, comprising 4,240 in the 250/300-seat range and 2,010 with 300-400 seats. That leaves 17,000 single-aisle planes worth around $1.2 trillion, or 68% of the units. Airbus said this is higher than previous forecasts "due to the emergence of low-cost carriers and increased route liberalization and an accelerating demand for single-aisle aircraft in Asia."

by Brian Straus

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