Industry forecasts 2010 recovery at Routes in Beijing

Boosted by a gradual economic recovery, the global airline industry is expected to recover in 2010, industry players concluded at yesterday's Global Strategy Summit, part of the World Route Development Forum in Beijing.

"The global economy is recovering slowly now. China and other Southeast Asian countries are leading the recovery and the US is expected to start recovery in the second half of 2009, while Europe and Japan are lagging behind. So we expect the air transport industry to post positive growth in 2010," Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP-Market and Value Analysis Fariba Alamdari predicted at the event (ATWOnline, Sept. 10).

The world's airlines suffered a collective loss of $8.5 billion in 2008 and are expected to report a a $9 billion deficit this year, according to IATA (ATWOnline, Sept. 2). "It is the worst crisis in air the transportation industry--2,860 airliners have been parked idle, which is about 13.1% of the total global fleet and [a figure that has risen] 30% over the past 12 months," World Bank Director-Energy, Transport and Water Jamal Saghir noted.

But the industry has started to show signs of recovery. "Air traffic recorded only negative 1.2% growth in August, which is mainly attributable to emerging markets represented by Southeast Asia, South America and Africa," Airbus Market Research and Forecasts Manager Arnaud Maheu pointed out.

However, more time is required to return to the industry's peak. "I would say it will take two or three years," Assn. of Asia Pacific Airlines DG Andrew Herdman said. Alamdari expects international passenger traffic to return to its peak in late 2010 or early 2011, while cargo traffic will not get there until the end of 2011 or early 2012.

"Before that happens, one of the major problems carriers need to address is how to manage excess capacities. Boeing and Airbus need to realize most carriers won't need to introduce new aircraft this year and next year," Herdman asserted. He predicted that the Asia/Pacific region will maintain 6.9% annual growth over the next two decades, slightly higher than Boeing forecast last week.