Airbus raises 20-year forecast more than 30% to 22,700 aircraft

Airbus significantly boosted its long-term projection for commercial aircraft demand in its "2006 Global Market Forecast" released yesterday, predicting that 22,700 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at $2.6 trillion will be required over the next 20 years, 5,400 more than it predicted just two years ago.

Rapid growth in emerging markets like China, India and the Middle East was citied as the main reason for the increase, which boosts the value of commercial aircraft demand through 2025 by $700 billion over the 2004 projection of $1.9 trillion.

Notable is Airbus's forecast for "very large aircraft" sales, which contrasts sharply with rival Boeing's prediction. The Toulouse-based builder, which believes its troubled A380 program will be critical to meeting future demand, projects airlines will need 1,260 passenger aircraft with at least 400 seats over the next 20 years, as well as 400 similarly sized freighters.

Boeing's 20-year forecast, released over the summer (ATWOnline, July 13), foresees demand for just 990 400-plus-seat passenger and similarly sized cargo aircraft during the period. Overall, Boeing predicted that 27,200 new aircraft valued at more than $2.6 trillion will be required through 2025. Airbus said yesterday it has booked 619 orders so far this year but conceded that its share of new orders by value is 36%, down from 45% last year.

Airbus forecasts that 21,900 new 100-plus-seat passenger aircraft will be needed over the next 20 years, creating average deliveries of about 1,100 annually, up from around 800 it predicted two years ago. It said its projection is based on average annual traffic growth, as measured by RPKs, of 4.8%, slightly below Boeing's projected 4.9% rise. Transpacific, Europe-to-Asia and transatlantic long-haul routes will increase 60% over the next 20 years, it said.

Freight tonne kilometers are forecast to increase 6% annually over the same period by Airbus against Boeing's 6.1% prediction, generating the need for 3,580 freighter deliveries of which 800 (22%) will be factory-built. The rest will come from converted passenger models.

"Most significantly, the [2006-25] period will be marked by an increasing demand for new, more fuel-efficient airliners to help address airline operating costs as well as environmental concerns," the company said. "This factor will lead to a higher replacement rate of over 12,000 aircraft."

It predicts that more than 70% of all deliveries between now and 2025 will be single-aisle types seating 100-220 passengers, which it said translates into more than 15,300 aircraft, or 42% by value of all passenger aircraft deliveries. "While mainline single-aisle aircraft demand will be highest in Europe and North America, in Asia the low-cost market is expected to quintuple its fleet from 236 to over 1,300 by 2025."