
Bernstein Research forecast that A350 deliveries will slip into 2014 and that Airbus will deliver only eight of the next-generation aircraft that year, flagging a significant slippage in the program.
Asked to comment, an Airbus spokesperson told ATW, “We don’t have any basis to confirm the data in the Bernstein report.” Airbus has reassured the market in the past that the program is on track for a 2013 first delivery.
The New York-based research group predicted only two months ago that Airbus would be able to deliver four A350s in 2013 and 18 in 2014. Airbus plans to deliver the first A350-900 in 2013 and the A350-800 in 2014.
In the same report, Bernstein’s modeling shows twin-aisle aircraft making up more than 50% of Boeing’s deliveries from 2014, with the company regaining the mantle of top commercial aircraft supplier in 2011 and retaining it through 2014. That surge in twin-aisle deliveries reflects Boeing finally getting a handle on the 787 program with 107 Dreamliners to be delivered in 2014, Bernstein said.
The report is based on the latest figures released by Airbus and Boeing. Analysis from Bernstein shows that A320 family aircraft will continue to have the highest build rate at 440 a year from 2012 onward, up from 386 this year. Boeing’s 737NG series is a close second at 404 per year by 2012.
The highest production rate twin-aisle in 2014 will be the 787, Bernstein forecast. A330s will be built at a rate of 90 per year and the 777 at 81 annually, the report said. In the super-heavyweight class, Bernstein sees the A380 reaching a rate of 27 a year in 2012 and continuing at that level through 2014. It sees Boeing delivering 35 747-8s next year, then settling back to a rate of 24 a year.
Discuss this news 25
Sounds like a written with
By AnonymousSounds like a written with strong Boeing-backers glasses, maybe colored light rose -)
Much of this report is
By AnonymousMuch of this report is speculation and it would have been more substantial if information was provided that gave the basis for the forecast.
There is little if any information about the state of design or progress on the A350 except that Airbus says it is on schedule.
The delay is caused by the
By hans van der zandenThe delay is caused by the problems Airbus is facing to develop a plastic fuselage that provides with electrical continuity, such that lightning current can't stop when traveling through the fuselage structure; A lighting that stops is deadly!
Creating such electrical structural network has proven to be far more difficult than anticipated, if possible at all with a plastic fuselage. Even when the best possible measures are applied - at the expense of considerable weight - will a plastic fuselage never provide the lightning protection obtained with an aluminum fuselage.
But, Airbus at least tries to solve the problem with the A350, contrary to Boeing who already have given up on this - labeling the measures originally deemed necessary for lighting protection later as impractical, which leaves the 787 a very dangerous plane to fly; and will probably cause further long delay, if not dramatic accidents.
The suppliers that I work
By AnonymousThe suppliers that I work with have seen the promised "detailed engineering" slip from last February to this September -- and the slippage is still continuing. Parts that were supposed to ship by July 2010 are now 1Q11 -- assuming that the engineering gets released and the production can be expedited. The scarey part is that these are traditional metallic parts -- without the issues of new materials. This implies the whole design must be slipping very badly.
The Bernstein folks don't
By OV-099The Bernstein folks don't seem to know what they are talking about. For example, if they'd spend just a little more time on "researching" they'd know that the current planned production rate for the 747-8F/8I is two airplanes per month from mid-2012 and 1-1,5 per month during the next two years. The supposedly sudden "hike" in production next year is totally unrealistic, even without the likely slip in first delivery of the 747-8F into 1Q 2011.
Also, a production rate of 40 a320-family aircraft per month dosn't mean that Airbus would deliver 440 in a year. An airbus production year is about 10,5 months of production + 1,5 months of production stoppage during the 5-6 weeks of holidays in August and December.
Based on these two examples, and their other superficial projections on Airbus and Boeing deliveries during the next few years, it's pretty obvious that Bernstein Research can't be taken seriously as a "research" entity.
Hans, You have no idea what
By AnonymousHans,
You have no idea what you are talking about. The 787 has not "given up" on lightning strike protection. Your characterization is nothing but fear mongering. You should be ashamed of yourself.
OV-099: I haven´t read this
By RainmanOV-099:
I haven´t read this report but it never says Boeing would build 35 748 in 2012. It said it would deliver them in 2012. Supposedly they would get FAA/EASA clearance in 2012 after Boeing begins the production model assembly.
As far as the A350 EIS slippage, it doesn´t take a genius to imagine that. All new models take longer (sometimes way longer) than expected to certificate.
Rainman, according to
By OV-099Rainman, according to Geoffrey Thomas "it (Bernstein) sees Boeing delivering 35 747-8s next year (2011, not 2012), then settling back to a rate of 24 a year."
As for any A350 EIS slippage; no, not "all new models" wil take way longer to certificate. The A320, A340/A330 and 777 programs were pretty much certificated according to the original schedule set up at the time the programs were launched.
OV-099, remember than EIS is
By Jons, OreOV-099, remember than EIS is not the same as certification.
The A380 was certified only 6 months behind schedule, but EIS was a year behind schedule, and some deliveries (not all them) are 2 years late, due to production ramp-up delays.
787 will never fly, it always
By Insider787 will never fly, it always gets delayed. What a joke...
Easy to of determined two
By AnonymousEasy to of determined two years ago the A350 would be late. It will no doubt be overweight to through simplified design as a result of limitations of the tools used in the design process. Ultimately only time will tell.
I worked in both planes and
By AnonymousI worked in both planes and you're wrong, sorry. Search for Boeing 787 CRN and A350 ESN.
That was at Hans' comment.
By AnonymousThat was at Hans' comment.
Jons, that was not the point.
By OV-099Jons, that was not the point. I used the certification of the A320, A340/A330 and 777 airliners as a case in point to rebut rainman's claim that "all new" models supposedly take longer to certify.
As for the A380, it can be argued that the production snafu was partly caused by the integration process (or rather the lack thereof) of EADS itself. Industrial best-practice recommendations suggest that new products should use existing processes and tools, the existing organization and demonstrated technologies. The A380 program was developed by a "new" organization, so Airbus did not follow that second recommendation.
Interestingly, it looks like Boeing didn't follow any industrial best-practice recommendation on the 787. Perhaps this is the root cause of the seemingly endless number of problems Boeing is encountering on the Dreamliner.
I don't care if the A350 is
By AnonymousI don't care if the A350 is late, as long as it's better than the B787!! Stay on coures EADS.
Of course the A350 will be
By The ShrimpOf course the A350 will be late. Airbus is having serious issues with their panel liner design. The joins to frame are problematic - number one. Number two, the aircraft is projected to be seriously overweight.
Poster Hans gave me a right good chuckle with talk about lightning. Who recalls the Airbus comments after Boeing's announcement of the 787? An all plastique aeroplane? Oh non! We would never build an aeroplane entirely of plastique! The Americans have gone - how do you say - crazy!
This is pure fiction. No
By PauThis is pure fiction. No aircraft made in the modern era has not made designs to deal with the build up of a static charge as it flies. The 787 has a metal matrix built into its composite skin to deal with the static build up. This coupled with aluminium spraying of others surfaces more then deals with the problems. How do I know this because I worked on the aircraft. Do some research before you make outlandish statements!
"Insider", the only thing
By IguanaDC3"Insider", the only thing that isn't ever going to fly is your credibility, unless it's flying right out the window of stupidity. The thing IS already flying & WILL be better, Mr Anonymous, than the copycat Schoolbus 350.
'nuff said.
I am an engineer at Boeing
By AnonymousI am an engineer at Boeing and you, sir, are 100% wrong.
This is a very interesting
By GedThis is a very interesting comment, apologies for picking up on it so late. Could you advise where I can find a description of the design tools used, or perhaps some perspective on the IT systems architecture used to support the A350 program ?
IguanaDC3 you sound like a
By AnonymousIguanaDC3 you sound like a games console fanboy.
Workers at Airbus have had no confirmation about any delays with the 350 what so ever.. Rumours are just that, rumours.
A350 worker.
Does anybody understand
By AnonymousDoes anybody understand English anymore? The grammar and spelling mistakes in some of these posts is absolutely atrocious. Anyone ever heard of grammar and spel check?
Where's your grammar? She's
By cfhliWhere's your grammar?
She's upstairs taking a nap.
Well how has boeing exactly
By AnonymousWell how has boeing exactly "given up" on it? the 787 received faa and easa certification today. Aibus 350 has about 500 orders compared to 787 800 orders and the 350 is yet to even fly!
Well im sorry its not a joke.
By AnonymousWell im sorry its not a joke. It flew about 9 months ago and is ready for delivery
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